Cogito

Globalization Trilemma

Posted in Uncategorized by qmarks on October 23, 2009

The exchange-rate regime is often seen as constrained by the monetary policy trilemma, which imposes a stark tradeoff among exchange stability, monetary independence, and capital market openness. Bank of Canada is using inflation targeting policy, therefore controling the interest rates through money supply. So any intervention to the CAD would harm the market openness, calculated by Total Foreing Trade Volume/GDP.

However, inflation level is lower than then target range, maybe Governor Carney may print some CAD, in return in the short term, that will contribute to the growth in the long term, both devaluate the CADUSD, and increase the inflation to get back to the target level.

I expect money supply to increase, therefore one can track the Balance Sheet of Bank of Canada closely.

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